So a couple weeks back I got a note on Facebook from an old friend to the effect of "it seems like we're the only people on here that aren't supporting Obama." And, by and large, I think she's right (yes Jess, I know you love Hilary). In point of face, I've been pulling for McCain, and not just since this election cycle started. I've liked him since about '98 or '99 when he was first pointed out to me by a buddy of mine at the Naval Academy. Now that McCain has the Republican nomination locked up in a definite sort of way, I've been reflecting a little bit on the election more generally and what matters to me going into this November.
In the '92 election, Bill Clinton was able to ride "It's the economy, stupid" all the way to the White House. Realistically, the economy is always going to be a major, perhaps the most important, motivating factor for voters (despite the debatable amount of influence a president has over it). And these days, the economy is at best questionable and at worst sauntering vaguely downwards. But that's not it, at least not for me. Similarly, the next president will probably get to pick a few Supreme Court justices, make some big decisions regarding the environment, and if we're terribly, pull off some tax reform. All important, all overlooked in their own way, but still not what got me to vote in the primary and not what will get me out there in November.
It's the war. Just the war. When it started to become clear in 2002 that we would be invading Iraq, I supported it. I thought it made sense at the time, I had always thought Hussein was a threat, and it seemed like there would be some form of WMD there. And so I was wrong, and I regret it, and I wish this war hadn't started. Sometimes I wonder what we would be doing if we weren't at war, and to be honest I have no idea.
Perhaps it seems then that I have some sort of dissociative reality problem, supporting a candidate who wanted more troops in Iraq and who staked his political career largely on the "surge" last year. But honestly, he seems to me the best candidate for it, all around, and not because he's the one with military experience or because he came from a military family or because he was a war hero. Actually, I think, had he won in 2000, like I had hoped for at the time, we wouldn't be in Iraq now. He doesn't have the same personal stake in Iraq that the Bush family did, he wouldn't have picked Cheney or Rumsfeld for his inner circle, and he would have listened to someone like Colin Powell, rather than setting him aside and making him embarrass himself in front of the world. And even if he had started the war, he likely would have sent a much larger and stronger force rather than following the still unproven Rumsfeld theory of modern defense.
But then again, that's over, that's done, and there's no real value in the wishful thinking and the dreams of two elections ago. The fact is we're there now, we're in Iraq now, we're in the middle of an extremely complex military, political, and economic morass. Even if we are less secure than we were five or six years ago, I don't think that pulling out a combat division a month is going to improve that.
In the Ohio Democratic debate two weeks ago, both Obama and Clinton said that they would leave a residual force of US military in Iraq in order to fight Al Qaeda (on the conditions of course that the Iraqi government did not demand the US leave). They didn't say, nor were they asked, how big that force would be or how long they are prepared to leave them for. Back many months, McCain was asked about the possibility of being in Iraq for fifty years, and he quickly and unhesitatingly responded "maybe 100." Rhetorically, not his best move, but it's realistic. He's said repeatedly since then that he believes Iraq will become a situation somewhere on the spectrum of Germany and Japan on one hand and South Korea and the DMZ on the other. Over fifty years later, we still have US military - a residual force, you might say - stationed in other parts of the world, with no calls whatsoever from presidential candidates to bring them home. Indeed, it seems to me that, in the longer run, in the 8+ years term, all three candidates are probably talking about roughly the same thing. And despite their vast rhetorical differences, the only substantive one seems to be what's going to happen in the next five years.
Most reports coming in from Iraq seem to indicate the surge has been successful. US and coalition deaths and injuries have dropped, the number of Al Qaeda killed has grown, and Sunni and Shiite militias seem to be targeting each other less and protecting their own areas more.
As the Iraqi police and military improve, it will take pressure of our own troops and we'll be able to bring some home. But it doesn't seem to me at this point that committing to backing out of the situation and likely sacrificing the gains we've made is the best move. We're there now, and I think we should want the best outcome possible out of it.
And at the end of the day, I think McCain is best able to make that happen.
Labels: election, McCain, politics